Chess, trading and Bregret

When I was child, I used to play chess. From time to time you would find somebody that just had learned a special kind of opening and had decided to practice no matter what.

But having a plan is not enough. Chess involves thinking what could happen if things go different than planned. In a way a plan that not involves different alternatives is not a real plan.

I’ve been reading these days about trading: buying and selling shares and other instruments. The first rule on trading is to set a stop loss.

It all has come to my mind watching the reaction to the British referendum. Not only about the voters who regret what they voted.

Nobody knows what to do.

Winners say hey, no rush (I thought being in the EU was terrible, but maybe not)

Losers want now want to change the rules.

Winner’s backers now realise the mess is going to be huge and have second thoughts.

Losers backers now realise they should have been more vocal instead of thinking “fight among enemies is good for us”.

It is not something specific of British politics. We’ve seen it also in the US Republican Party nomination where all other nominees kept running until it was too late. I’ve seen it also with Spanish politics (today Spain votes for the second time in months).

It is the inability to think ahead. To plan for “what if not”.Like trading without stop loss. Like playing chess anticipating only your own moves.

The political elites don’t have a clue.

At least most of them.

First published here