God help us

It turns out that I was wrong when I wrote last week’s post. Well, maybe I came to a rather good end result but for the wrong reasons:

  1. Income data from May 2009 (and probably June) was tricky because taxes returns were accelerated so that people could vote with their money back in the pocket.

  2. Data for income and expenses was only for the national services. But in Spain we have nearly federal organization, so local and regional services must be taken into account. That means actual incomes and expenses are higher than predicted.

The first reason would decrease the predicted deficit. The second reason would increase the predicted deficit. It turns out that last predictions (from “Banco de España” which is Spanish Central Bank) deficit will be in the range 11-12%. I predicted 11.3%.

Right result for bad reasons

I’ll try to redo my calculations and repost my results. I’m starting to be scared about Spanish situation after this report,this rebuttal, and this rebuttal to the rebuttal.

First published here